Starting Monday, and throughout this week, there has been a “swarm” of earthquakes near the terminus of the San Andreas fault — east of San Diego in the Salton Sea. (See on Google Maps at https://goo.gl/maps/GQ2JYWi7x9p). 96 have been over a magnitude 2, and a few that have been over a magnitude of 4.
The US Geological Survey has released an earthquake advisory stating:
“Preliminary calculations indicate that, as of 12:00 pm (PDT) on Sept. 30, 2016, there is 0.006% to 0.2% chance (less than 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 500) of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake being triggered on the Southern San Andreas Fault within the next seven days through October 7, with the likelihood decreasing over time. This range is estimated using several models developed in California to assess foreshock/aftershock probabilities, and the lower bound is about equal to the average chance of a magnitude 7 earthquake occurring on the Southern San Andreas Fault in any given week.”
See their full advisory at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/misc/2016-09-27.php
If nothing else, it’s a good reminder to be prepared. See a short PDF of how to get yourself prepared at http://www.earthquakecountry.org/downloads/ShakeOut_Earthquake_Guide_Disabilities_AFN.pdf and remind all: Drop, cover, and hold on (http://www.shakeout.org/california/dropcoverholdon/)